Minority Report: Sci-Fi Background
The 2002 science fiction film “Minority Report,” starring Tom Cruise, remains a popular and thought-provoking movie. It presents a dystopian future where crime, specifically murder, is virtually eliminated through “pre-crime.” A trio of psychics (“precogs”) predicts who is likely to commit a crime before it happens, allowing an experimental police force to apprehend them beforehand.
The story follows Tom Cruise’s character, a member of this pre-crime unit, who is himself targeted by the precogs, forcing him to go on the run from the very system he upheld.
Spielberg’s Think Tank and Early Predictions
Interestingly, director Steven Spielberg convened a think tank of 15 scientists before filming to envision Washington D.C. in 2054. The resulting brief formed the basis of the movie’s world, and many smaller concepts depicted have shown glimpses of reality.
One notable example is the reliance on retina scans for identification. In the film’s totalitarian future, eyes are used like fingerprints. This resonates with modern projects like WorldCoin, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, which aims to scan retinas globally (often targeting poorer nations for crypto tokens) to create a verified human network using biometric data. A police state with universal retina scans feels eerily similar.
The Shift from Prosecution to Prediction
While retina scans are a detail, the film’s core premise is the shift from prosecuting actual crimes to prosecuting intended crimes based on prediction. How does this compare to reality?
The UK’s “Murder Prediction Program”
A Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request by the organization Statewatch revealed documents from the UK Ministry of Justice detailing a program internally and unofficially called the “Murder Prediction Program.” Officially, it’s now titled the “Sharing Data to Improve Risk Assessment” programme.
Despite the name change, the program’s function aligns remarkably with Minority Report’s premise. It uses machine learning and large datasets to predict who is “most likely” to commit a crime, specifically homicide. While not involving psychics, using data patterns and past behavior for future crime prediction mirrors the movie’s core concept. This officially sanctioned program is actively being pursued by the UK government.
Program Goals and Functionality
The project, using data from Greater Manchester Police, the Ministry of Justice, and the National Offender Management Service (including the Offender Assessment System – OASys), is described in the FOIA documents as a data science pilot aiming to:
- (a) review offender characteristics that increase the risk of committing homicide
- (b) explore alternative and innovative data science techniques to risk prediction of homicide
- (c) explore the predictive power of Oasys, Delius and Nomis (MOJ datasets available on the Analytical Platform)
- (d) explore the additional predictive power of the national PNC dataset
- (e) explore the additional predictive power of local police (Greater Manchester) data in relation to homicide risk
- (f) to provide evidence towards improving prediction of serious crime, and ultimately contribute to protecting the public via better analysis
This explicitly involves using data like drug use, medical history, offender history, and disability to predict future actions. Section 1.3 of the document also mentions, “A final report is published on main findings/models/research, which includes ethical considerations, and reflection on future operationalisation and/or policy development based on the work.” While not currently used for arrests, the research began in 2023 and explicitly considers future policy development.
OASys: Prediction Already in Use?
The Offender Assessment System (OASys) mentioned in the documents is already in use. According to Statewatch, the Ministry of Justice has implemented OASys, a data-based profiling tool, to predict re-offending.
Crucially, Statewatch reports, “‘Predictions’ produced by this system are given to judges as part of sentencing decisions, prison categorisation, and also influence probation decisions, such as when someone is released from prison.” This suggests an algorithmic prediction model is already impacting sentencing and probation within the UK legal system.
Future Implications and Concerns
Programs like this rarely exist in isolation. While the homicide prediction program is new and currently UK-based, the underlying technology and methodology could proliferate. What happens if such systems are adopted in places with different incentives, like the for-profit prison system in the United States, where increased incarceration can mean increased profits?
Skepticism about fair application is warranted. Research published by the UK Ministry of Justice itself analyzes and defends the value and accuracy of OASys prediction indicators, suggesting an intention to integrate these tools further, not just experiment.
The focus seems to be shifting from predicting recidivism (re-offending) to predicting initial crimes, like homicide – mirroring Minority Report directly. While the movie was set in 2054, technological advancement is exponential. If such a system were claimed to significantly reduce crime rates (whether true or not), international adoption seems plausible, potentially leading to further erosion of rights, liberty, and privacy.
Conclusion: Minority Report in Real Life?
The UK government appears to be actively researching a system uncannily similar to the pre-crime concept in Minority Report. An official program uses crime statistics and extensive personal data to build predictive models for serious offenses like homicide, while similar predictive technology (OASys) is reportedly already influencing judicial decisions regarding sentencing and probation. There seems to be little indication this trend will slow or reverse; acceleration appears more likely.
