The Blind Allegiance to Tesla’s Promises
Some viewers immediately reject criticism of Tesla with visceral intensity. After hearing “The Failing Gambit of Tesla,” rational thinking often disappears, replaced by reactive denial from those under Elon Musk’s carefully cultivated influence.
Rather than engaging with opinions on merit or providing contradictory evidence, the cult-like allegiance surrounding Tesla drives supporters to trust only Musk’s words. According to Musk himself, the difference between Tesla being worth substantial money versus “basically zero” is Full Self Driving (FSD).
A Decade of Broken Promises
Understanding Tesla’s failing gambit requires examining the deep history of unfulfilled promises. Over ten years, Musk made fifteen different public statements to shareholders and media, claiming Full Self Driving with “zero human intervention” was imminent within one to three years.
This bold tactic of claiming a product is “imminently available” for over 10 straight years finally culminated on June 22, 2025, when Tesla Robotaxis supposedly hit the market.
The Reality of the Robotaxi “Launch”
The June 22, 2025 Tesla Robotaxi rollout consisted of just 10-20 vehicles in an invite-only, restricted launch for favored influencers, stockholders, and mega fans. The service operated at $4.20 per ride within a geofenced portion of Austin, Texas, during specific hours and only in favorable weather conditions.
Tesla deliberately constructed this launch with perfect conditions, making any intervention needed extremely concerning. When showcasing something under precisely calibrated perfect conditions still results in failures, those failures will dramatically increase when conditions worsen.
The Polymarket Betting Disaster
Polymarket, a predictive betting website, created a market on whether Tesla would launch robotaxis before July. Despite the beta test releasing June 22, the market odds remained low at 14%.
On June 19, three days before launch, Elon Musk replied to someone noting the low odds with “money making opportunity.” This explicit statement from someone with insider knowledge caused nearly half a million dollars to flood the market predicting “yes.”
However, the wager terms clearly stated: “A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify.” Tesla’s robotaxi remains invite-only, causing Musk’s loyal followers to literally throw their money away.
Robotaxi Failures in Perfect Conditions
Despite engineered ideal parameters – small geofenced area, no inclement weather, restricted hours, and carefully chosen riders – videos quickly surfaced showing robotaxis breaking traffic laws and creating unsafe conditions.
- Cars phantom braking and stopping in the left lane of 40 mph roads
- Failed left turns followed by jerky wheel movements and illegal merging
- Crossing double yellow lines to reach the next light
- Stopping in the middle of intersections, blocking traffic
- Telling passengers to exit while blocking roads, then failing to restart
After these clips circulated widely, new videos suddenly appeared with titles like “Tesla Robotaxi executes PERFECT left turn,” seemingly attempting to bury negative examples under positive headlines.
Waymo: The Real Success Story
Tesla’s main competitor Waymo is on track for rollout in 10 more cities during 2025 and demonstrates monumentally better safety compared to human drivers. Data from 25 million miles of service shows:
- 88% reduction in property damage claims
- 92% reduction in bodily injury claims
- Just nine property damage claims and two bodily injury claims across 25.3 million miles
- Fewer serious collisions than human drivers, independent of fault
Waymo uses complex systems of sensors and cameras including LIDAR for maximum information gathering, while Tesla only uses cameras with AI visual interpretation.
The LIDAR Debate
Elon Musk has consistently condemned LIDAR technology, calling it “lame,” “friggin stupid,” “expensive,” and “unnecessary.” In 2019, he stated: “Lidar is a fool’s errand. Anyone relying on lidar is doomed. Doomed!”
However, LIDAR costs have plummeted from over $10,000 to $500-$1,000, with expectations of reaching $100 in coming years. Global LIDAR penetration is expected to surge from 0.5% to over 10% of passenger cars as prices approach $100.
Meanwhile, Waymo is rapidly scaling. As of April 2025, Waymo holds 27% market share of rides in San Francisco’s operating zone, with that percentage expected to increase when airport service begins.
The Hardware Capability Deception
For nine years, Musk claimed all Tesla cars produced have hardware capability for Full Self Driving. This promise dates back to 2016 when Tesla used AP2 (later replaced by AP3), suggesting an industry-defining moment when 3 million Teslas would become autonomous overnight.
However, neither AP2 nor AP3 are capable of complete autonomy self-driving functions, let alone with regulatory approval. Tesla would need to replace computers for millions of vehicles nationwide to fulfill their promises.
Instead of honoring commitments, Tesla deleted blog posts that explicitly promised: “We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.”
This deception has resulted in ongoing lawsuits, including one represented by Cotchett, Pitre & McCarthy in California, currently in the discovery stage.
The Regulatory Conflict of Interest
The timing of Tesla’s robotaxi beta test raises serious questions. During his tenure as head of DOGE under Donald Trump, Elon Musk cut approximately 30 jobs at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) just three months before the test.
Many fired employees were in the office of vehicle automation safety – the very people responsible for regulating safety of autonomous vehicles. The man whose company depends on Full Self Driving for value fired regulators shortly before testing on public roads after a decade of broken promises.
This represents the most obvious conflict of interest imaginable.
The Failing Gambit Revealed
Tesla’s chief competitor has successfully completed what this beta test pretends to do – small, geofenced, strictly monitored test rides – for years, scaling to millions of people with 100,000 monetized trips per week.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s magical business model promising industry dominance remains unfulfilled after a decade of misrepresentation across multiple industries.
Looking at the entire situation in context reveals nothing but failure in a gambit by the world’s richest man, whose house of cards and castle of lies is no longer stable enough to build on.
The evidence is clear: Tesla’s Full Self Driving promises remain broken, their robotaxi launch demonstrates critical safety failures even in perfect conditions, and their competitor Waymo continues expanding with proven safety records. The failing gambit of Tesla’s autonomous vehicle strategy is now impossible to ignore.
